Global warming

Global warming
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For past climate change, see paleoclimatology and geologic temperature record.
Comparison of ground based (blue) and satellite based (red: UAH; green: RSS) records of temperature variations since 1979. Trends plotted since January 1982.Global mean surface temperature difference from the average for 1961–1990
Mean surface temperature change for the period 1999 to 2008 relative to the average temperatures from 1940 to 1980Global warming is the increase in the average temperature of the Earth's near-surface air and oceans since the mid-20th century and its projected continuation. Global surface temperature increased 0.74 ± 0.18 °C (1.33 ± 0.32 °F) between the start and the end of the 20th century.[1][A] The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concludes that most of the observed temperature increase since the middle of the 20th century was caused by increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases resulting from human activity such as fossil fuel burning and deforestation.[1] The IPCC also concludes that variations in natural phenomena such as solar radiation and volcanoes produced most of the warming from pre-industrial times to 1950 and had a small cooling effect afterward.[2][3] These basic conclusions have been endorsed by more than 40 scientific societies and academies of science,[B] including all of the national academies of science of the major industrialized countries.[4]

Climate model projections summarized in the latest IPCC report indicate that the global surface temperature will probably rise a further 1.1 to 6.4 °C (2.0 to 11.5 °F) during the twenty-first century.[1] The uncertainty in this estimate arises from the use of models with differing sensitivity to greenhouse gas concentrations and the use of differing estimates of future greenhouse gas emissions. Some other uncertainties include how warming and related changes will vary from region to region around the globe. Most studies focus on the period up to the year 2100. However, warming is expected to continue beyond 2100 even if emissions stop, because of the large heat capacity of the oceans and the long lifetime of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.[5][6]

An increase in global temperature will cause sea levels to rise and will change the amount and pattern of precipitation, probably including expansion of subtropical deserts.[7] The continuing retreat of glaciers, permafrost and sea ice is expected, with warming being strongest in the Arctic. Other likely effects include increases in the intensity of extreme weather events, species extinctions, and changes in agricultural yields.

Political and public debate continues regarding climate change, and what actions (if any) to take in response. The available options are mitigation to reduce further emissions; adaptation to reduce the damage caused by warming; and, more speculatively, geoengineering to reverse global warming. Most national governments have signed and ratified the Kyoto Protocol aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

Contents [hide]
1 Temperature changes
2 Radiative forcing
2.1 Greenhouse gases
2.2 Aerosols and soot
2.3 Solar variation
3 Feedback
4 Climate models
5 Attributed and expected effects
5.1 Environmental
5.2 Economic
6 Responses to global warming
6.1 Mitigation
6.2 Adaptation
6.3 Geoengineering
7 Debate and skepticism
8 See also
9 Notes
10 References
11 Further reading
12 External links


Temperature changes
Main article: Temperature record

Two millennia of mean surface temperatures according to different reconstructions, each smoothed on a decadal scale. The unsmoothed, annual value for 2004 is also plotted for reference.The most commonly discussed measure of global warming is the trend in globally averaged temperature near the Earth's surface. Expressed as a linear trend, this temperature rose by 0.74°C ±0.18°C over the period 1906–2005. The rate of warming over the last half of that period was almost double that for the period as a whole (0.13°C ±0.03°C per decade, versus 0.07°C ± 0.02°C per decade). The urban heat island effect is estimated to account for about 0.002 °C of warming per decade since 1900.[8] Temperatures in the lower troposphere have increased between 0.12 and 0.22 °C (0.22 and 0.4 °F) per decade since 1979, according to satellite temperature measurements. Temperature is believed to have been relatively stable over the one or two thousand years before 1850, with regionally-varying fluctuations such as the Medieval Warm Period or the Little Ice Age.

Based on estimates by NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies, 2005 was the warmest year since reliable, widespread instrumental measurements became available in the late 1800s, exceeding the previous record set in 1998 by a few hundredths of a degree.[9] Estimates prepared by the World Meteorological Organization and the Climatic Research Unit concluded that 2005 was the second warmest year, behind 1998.[10][11] Temperatures in 1998 were unusually warm because the strongest El Niño in the past century occurred during that year.[12] Global temperature is subject to short-term fluctuations that overlay long term trends and can temporarily mask them. The relative stability in temperature from 1999 to 2009 is consistent with such an episode.[13] [14]

Temperature changes vary over the globe. Since 1979, land temperatures have increased about twice as fast as ocean temperatures (0.25 °C per decade against 0.13 °C per decade).[15] Ocean temperatures increase more slowly than land temperatures because of the larger effective heat capacity of the oceans and because the ocean loses more heat by evaporation.[16] The Northern Hemisphere warms faster than the Southern Hemisphere because it has more land and because it has extensive areas of seasonal snow and sea-ice cover subject to ice-albedo feedback. Although more greenhouse gases are emitted in the Northern than Southern Hemisphere this does not contribute to the difference in warming because the major greenhouse gases persist long enough to mix between hemispheres.[17]

The thermal inertia of the oceans and slow responses of other indirect effects mean that climate can take centuries or longer to adjust to changes in forcing. Climate commitment studies indicate that even if greenhouse gases were stabilized at 2000 levels, a further warming of about 0.5 °C (0.9 °F) would still occur.[18]

Radiative forcing
Main article: Radiative forcing
External forcing is a term used in climate science for processes external to the climate system (though not necessarily external to Earth). Climate responds to several types of external forcing, such as changes in greenhouse gas concentrations, changes in solar luminosity, volcanic eruptions, and variations in Earth's orbit around the Sun.[2] Attribution of recent climate change focuses on the first three types of forcing. Orbital cycles vary slowly over tens of thousands of years and thus are too gradual to have caused the temperature changes observed in the past century.

Greenhouse gases
Main articles: Greenhouse gas and Greenhouse effect
Greenhouse effect schematic showing energy flows between space, the atmosphere, and earth's surface. Energy exchanges are expressed in watts per square meter (W/m2).

Recent atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) increases. Monthly CO2 measurements display seasonal oscillations in overall yearly uptrend; each year's maximum occurs during the Northern Hemisphere's late spring, and declines during its growing season as plants remove some atmospheric CO2.The greenhouse effect is the process by which absorption and emission of infrared radiation by gases in the atmosphere warm a planet's lower atmosphere and surface. It was discovered by Joseph Fourier in 1824 and was first investigated quantitatively by Svante Arrhenius in 1896.[19] Existence of the greenhouse effect as such is not disputed, even by those who do not agree that the recent temperature increase is attributable to human activity. The question is instead how the strength of the greenhouse effect changes when human activity increases the concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.

Naturally occurring greenhouse gases have a mean warming effect of about 33 °C (59 °F).[20][C] The major greenhouse gases are water vapor, which causes about 36–70 percent of the greenhouse effect; carbon dioxide (CO2), which causes 9–26 percent; methane (CH4), which causes 4–9 percent[not in citation given]; and ozone (O3), which causes 3–7 percent.[21][22] Clouds also affect the radiation balance, but they are composed of liquid water or ice and so are considered separately from water vapor and other gases.

Human activity since the Industrial Revolution has increased the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, leading to increased radiative forcing from CO2, methane, tropospheric ozone, CFCs and nitrous oxide. The concentrations of CO2 and methane have increased by 36% and 148% respectively since the mid-1700s.[23] These levels are much higher than at any time during the last 650,000 years, the period for which reliable data has been extracted from ice cores.[24] Less direct geological evidence indicates that CO2 values this high were last seen about 20 million years ago.[25] Fossil fuel burning has produced about three-quarters of the increase in CO2 from human activity over the past 20 years. Most of the rest is due to land-use change, particularly deforestation.[26]

CO2 concentrations are continuing to rise due to burning of fossil fuels and land-use change. The future rate of rise will depend on uncertain economic, sociological, technological, and natural developments. Accordingly, the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios gives a wide range of future CO2 scenarios, ranging from 541 to 970 ppm by the year 2100.[27] Fossil fuel reserves are sufficient to reach these levels and continue emissions past 2100 if coal, tar sands or methane clathrates are extensively exploited.[28]

The destruction of stratospheric ozone by chlorofluorocarbons is sometimes mentioned in relation to global warming. Although there are a few areas of linkage, the relationship between the two is not strong. Reduction of stratospheric ozone has a cooling influence, but substantial ozone depletion did not occur until the late 1970s.[29] Tropospheric ozone contributes to surface warming.[30]




Aerosols and soot

Ship tracks over the Atlantic Ocean on the east coast of the United States. The climatic impacts from aerosol forcing could have a large effect on climate through the indirect effect.Global dimming, a gradual reduction in the amount of global direct irradiance at the Earth's surface, has partially counteracted global warming from 1960 to the present.[31] The main cause of this dimming is aerosols produced by volcanoes and pollutants. These aerosols exert a cooling effect by increasing the reflection of incoming sunlight. James Hansen and colleagues have proposed that the effects of the products of fossil fuel combustion—CO2 and aerosols—have largely offset one another in recent decades, so that net warming has been driven mainly by non-CO2 greenhouse gases.[32]

In addition to their direct effect by scattering and absorbing solar radiation, aerosols have indirect effects on the radiation budget.[33] Sulfate aerosols act as cloud condensation nuclei and thus lead to clouds that have more and smaller cloud droplets. These clouds reflect solar radiation more efficiently than clouds with fewer and larger droplets.[34] This effect also causes droplets to be of more uniform size, which reduces growth of raindrops and makes the cloud more reflective to incoming sunlight.[35]

Soot may cool or warm, depending on whether it is airborne or deposited. Atmospheric soot aerosols directly absorb solar radiation, which heats the atmosphere and cools the surface. Regionally (but not globally), as much as 50% of surface warming due to greenhouse gases may be masked by atmospheric brown clouds.[36] When deposited, especially on glaciers or on ice in arctic regions, the lower surface albedo can also directly heat the surface.[37] The influences of aerosols, including black carbon, are most pronounced in the tropics and sub-tropics, particularly in Asia, while the effects of greenhouse gases are dominant in the extratropics and southern hemisphere.[38]

Solar variation
Main article: Solar variation

Solar variation over the last thirty years.Variations in solar output have been the cause of past climate changes.[39] Although solar forcing is generally thought to be too small to account for a significant part of global warming in recent decades,[40][41] a few studies disagree, such as a recent phenomenological analysis that indicates the contribution of solar forcing may be underestimated.[42]

Greenhouse gases and solar forcing affect temperatures in different ways. While both increased solar activity and increased greenhouse gases are expected to warm the troposphere, an increase in solar activity should warm the stratosphere while an increase in greenhouse gases should cool the stratosphere.[2] Observations show that temperatures in the stratosphere have been steady or cooling since 1979, when satellite measurements became available. Radiosonde (weather balloon) data from the pre-satellite era show cooling since 1958, though there is greater uncertainty in the early radiosonde record.[43]

A related hypothesis, proposed by Henrik Svensmark, is that magnetic activity of the sun deflects cosmic rays that may influence the generation of cloud condensation nuclei and thereby affect the climate.[44] Other research has found no relation between warming in recent decades and cosmic rays.[45][46] A recent study concluded that the influence of cosmic rays on cloud cover is about a factor of 100 lower than needed to explain the observed changes in clouds or to be a significant contributor to present-day climate change.[47]

Feedback
Main article: Effects of global warming
A positive feedback is a process that amplifies some change. Thus, when a warming trend results in effects that induce further warming, the result is a positive feedback; when the warming results in effects that reduce the original warming, the result is a negative feedback. The main positive feedback in global warming involves the tendency of warming to increase the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere. The main negative feedback in global warming is the effect of temperature on emission of infrared radiation: as the temperature of a body increases, the emitted radiation increases with the fourth power of its absolute temperature.

Water vapor feedback
If the atmosphere is warmed, the saturation vapor pressure increases, and the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere will tend to increase. Since water vapor is a greenhouse gas, the increase in water vapor content makes the atmosphere warm further; this warming causes the atmosphere to hold still more water vapor (a positive feedback), and so on until other processes stop the feedback loop. The result is a much larger greenhouse effect than that due to CO2 alone. Although this feedback process causes an increase in the absolute moisture content of the air, the relative humidity stays nearly constant or even decreases slightly because the air is warmer.[48]
Cloud feedback
Warming is expected to change the distribution and type of clouds. Seen from below, clouds emit infrared radiation back to the surface, and so exert a warming effect; seen from above, clouds reflect sunlight and emit infrared radiation to space, and so exert a cooling effect. Whether the net effect is warming or cooling depends on details such as the type and altitude of the cloud. These details were poorly observed before the advent of satellite data and are difficult to represent in climate models.[48]
Lapse rate
The atmosphere's temperature decreases with height in the troposphere. Since emission of infrared radiation varies with temperature, longwave radiation escaping to space from the relatively cold upper atmosphere is less than that emitted toward the ground from the lower atmosphere. Thus, the strength of the greenhouse effect depends on the atmosphere's rate of temperature decrease with height. Both theory and climate models indicate that global warming will reduce the rate of temperature decrease with height, producing a negative lapse rate feedback that weakens the greenhouse effect. Measurements of the rate of temperature change with height are very sensitive to small errors in observations, making it difficult to establish whether the models agree with observations.[49]
Ice-albedo feedback

Aerial photograph showing a section of sea ice. The lighter blue areas are melt ponds and the darkest areas are open water, both have a lower albedo than the white sea ice. The melting ice contributes to ice-albedo feedback.When ice melts, land or open water takes its place. Both land and open water are on average less reflective than ice and thus absorb more solar radiation. This causes more warming, which in turn causes more melting, and this cycle continues.[50]
Arctic methane release
Warming is also the triggering variable for the release of methane in the arctic.[51] Methane released from thawing permafrost such as the frozen peat bogs in Siberia, and from methane clathrate on the sea floor, creates a positive feedback.[52]
Reduced absorption of CO2 by the oceanic ecosystems
Ocean ecosystems' ability to sequester carbon is expected to decline as the oceans warm. This is because warming reduces the nutrient levels of the mesopelagic zone (about 200 to 1000 m deep), which limits the growth of diatoms in favor of smaller phytoplankton that are poorer biological pumps of carbon.[53]
CO2 release from oceans
Cooler water can absorb more CO2. As ocean temperatures rise some of this CO2 will be released. This is one of the main reasons why atmospheric CO2 is lower during an ice age. There is a greater mass of CO2 contained in the oceans than there is in the atmosphere.
Gas release
Release of gases of biological origin may be affected by global warming, but research into such effects is at an early stage. Some of these gases, such as nitrous oxide released from peat, directly affect climate.[54] Others, such as dimethyl sulfide released from oceans, have indirect effects.[55]
Climate models
Main article: Global climate model
Calculations of global warming prepared in or before 2001 from a range of climate models under the SRES A2 emissions scenario, which assumes no action is taken to reduce emissions and regionally divided economic development.


The geographic distribution of surface warming during the 21st century calculated by the HadCM3 climate model if a business as usual scenario is assumed for economic growth and greenhouse gas emissions. In this figure, the globally averaged warming corresponds to 3.0 °C (5.4 °F).The main tools for projecting future climate changes are mathematical models based on physical principles including fluid dynamics, thermodynamics and radiative transfer. Although they attempt to include as many processes as possible, simplifications of the actual climate system are inevitable because of the constraints of available computer power and limitations in knowledge of the climate system. All modern climate models are in fact combinations of models for different parts of the Earth. These include an atmospheric model for air movement, temperature, clouds, and other atmospheric properties; an ocean model that predicts temperature, salt content, and circulation of ocean waters; models for ice cover on land and sea; and a model of heat and moisture transfer from soil and vegetation to the atmosphere. Some models also include treatments of chemical and biological processes.[56] Warming due to increasing levels of greenhouse gases is not an assumption of the models; rather, it is an end result from the interaction of greenhouse gases with radiative transfer and other physical processes in the models.[57] Although much of the variation in model outcomes depends on the greenhouse gas emissions used as inputs, the temperature effect of a specific greenhouse gas concentration (climate sensitivity) varies depending on the model used. The representation of clouds is one of the main sources of uncertainty in present-generation models.[58]

Global climate model projections of future climate most often have used estimates of greenhouse gas emissions from the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). In addition to human-caused emissions, some models also include a simulation of the carbon cycle; this generally shows a positive feedback, though this response is uncertain. Some observational studies also show a positive feedback.[59][60][61] Including uncertainties in future greenhouse gas concentrations and climate sensitivity, the IPCC anticipates a warming of 1.1 °C to 6.4 °C (2.0 °F to 11.5 °F) by the end of the 21st century, relative to 1980–1999.[1]

Models are also used to help investigate the causes of recent climate change by comparing the observed changes to those that the models project from various natural and human-derived causes. Although these models do not unambiguously attribute the warming that occurred from approximately 1910 to 1945 to either natural variation or human effects, they do indicate that the warming since 1970 is dominated by man-made greenhouse gas emissions.[62]

The physical realism of models is tested by examining their ability to simulate current or past climates.[63] Current climate models produce a good match to observations of global temperature changes over the last century, but do not simulate all aspects of climate.[26] While a 2007 study by David Douglass and colleagues found that the models did not accurately predict observed changes in the tropical troposphere,[64] a 2008 paper published by a 17-member team led by Ben Santer noted errors and incorrect assumptions in the Douglass study, and found instead that the models and observations were not statistically different.[65] Not all effects of global warming are accurately predicted by the climate models used by the IPCC. For example, observed Arctic shrinkage has been faster than that predicted.[66]

Attributed and expected effects
Environmental
Main articles: Effects of global warming and Regional effects of global warming

Sparse records indicate that glaciers have been retreating since the early 1800s. In the 1950s measurements began that allow the monitoring of glacial mass balance, reported to the WGMS and the NSIDC.It usually is impossible to connect specific weather events to global warming. Instead, global warming is expected to cause changes in the overall distribution and intensity of events, such as changes to the frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation. Broader effects are expected to include glacial retreat, Arctic shrinkage, and worldwide sea level rise. Some effects on both the natural environment and human life are, at least in part, already being attributed to global warming. A 2001 report by the IPCC suggests that glacier retreat, ice shelf disruption such as that of the Larsen Ice Shelf, sea level rise, changes in rainfall patterns, and increased intensity and frequency of extreme weather events are attributable in part to global warming.[67] Other expected effects include water scarcity in some regions and increased precipitation in others, changes in mountain snowpack, and some adverse health effects from warmer temperatures.[68]

Social and economic effects of global warming may be exacerbated by growing population densities in affected areas. Temperate regions are projected to experience some benefits, such as fewer cold-related deaths.[69] A summary of probable effects and recent understanding can be found in the report made for the IPCC Third Assessment Report by Working Group II.[67] The newer IPCC Fourth Assessment Report summary reports that there is observational evidence for an increase in intense tropical cyclone activity in the North Atlantic Ocean since about 1970, in correlation with the increase in sea surface temperature (see Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation), but that the detection of long-term trends is complicated by the quality of records prior to routine satellite observations. The summary also states that there is no clear trend in the annual worldwide number of tropical cyclones.[1]

Additional anticipated effects include sea level rise of 0.18 to 0.59 meters (0.59 to 1.9 ft) in 2090–2100 relative to 1980–1999,[1] new trade routes resulting from arctic shrinkage,[70] possible thermohaline circulation slowing, increasingly intense (but less frequent) hurricanes and extreme weather events,[71] reductions in the ozone layer, changes in agriculture yields, changes in the range of climate-dependent disease vectors,[72] which have been linked to increases in the prevalence of malaria and dengue fever,[73] and ocean oxygen depletion.[74] Increased atmospheric CO2 increases the amount of CO2 dissolved in the oceans.[75] CO2 dissolved in the ocean reacts with water to form carbonic acid, resulting in ocean acidification. Ocean surface pH is estimated to have decreased from 8.25 near the beginning of the industrial era to 8.14 by 2004,[76] and is projected to decrease by a further 0.14 to 0.5 units by 2100 as the ocean absorbs more CO2.[1][77] Heat and carbon dioxide trapped in the oceans may still take hundreds of years to be re-emitted, even after greenhouse gas emissions are eventually reduced.[6] Since organisms and ecosystems are adapted to a narrow range of pH, this raises extinction concerns and disruptions in food webs.[78] One study predicts 18% to 35% of a sample of 1,103 animal and plant species would be extinct by 2050, based on future climate projections.[79] However, few mechanistic studies have documented extinctions due to recent climate change,[80] and one study suggests that projected rates of extinction are uncertain.[81]

Economic
Main articles: Economics of global warming and Low-carbon economy

Projected temperature increase for a range of stabilization scenarios (the colored bands). The black line in middle of the shaded area indicates 'best estimates'; the red and the blue lines the likely limits. From IPCC AR4.The IPCC reports the aggregate net economic costs of damages from climate change globally (discounted to the specified year). In 2005, the average social cost of carbon from 100 peer-reviewed estimates is US$12 per tonne of CO2, but range -$3 to $95/tCO2. The IPCC's gives these cost estimates with the caveats, "Aggregate estimates of costs mask significant differences in impacts across sectors, regions and populations and very likely underestimate damage costs because they cannot include many non-quantifiable impacts."[82]

One widely publicized report on potential economic impact is the Stern Review, written by Sir Nicholas Stern. It suggests that extreme weather might reduce global gross domestic product by up to one percent, and that in a worst-case scenario global per capita consumption could fall by the equivalent of 20 percent.[83] The response to the Stern Review was mixed. The Review's methodology, advocacy and conclusions were criticized by several economists, including Richard Tol, Gary Yohe,[84] Robert Mendelsohn[85] and William Nordhaus.[86] Economists that have generally supported the Review include Terry Barker,[87] William Cline,[88] and Frank Ackerman.[89] According to Barker, the costs of mitigating climate change are 'insignificant' relative to the risks of unmitigated climate change.[90]

According to United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), economic sectors likely to face difficulties related to climate change include banks, agriculture, transport and others.[91] Developing countries dependent upon agriculture will be particularly harmed by global warming.[92]

Responses to global warming
The broad agreement among climate scientists that global temperatures will continue to increase has led some nations, states, corporations and individuals to implement responses. These responses to global warming can be divided into mitigation of the causes and effects of global warming, adaptation to the changing global environment, and geoengineering to reverse global warming.

Mitigation
Main article: Mitigation of global warming

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is an approach to mitigation. Emissions may be sequestered from fossil fuel power plants, or removed during processing in hydrogen production. When used on plants, it is known as bio-energy with carbon capture and storage.Mitigation of global warming is accomplished through reductions in the rate of anthropogenic greenhouse gas release. Models suggest that mitigation can quickly begin to slow global warming, but that temperatures will appreciably decrease only after several centuries.[93] The world's primary international agreement on reducing greenhouse gas emissions is the Kyoto Protocol, an amendment to the UNFCCC negotiated in 1997. The Protocol now covers more than 160 countries and over 55 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions.[94] As of June 2009, only the United States, historically the world's largest emitter of greenhouse gases, has refused to ratify the treaty. The treaty expires in 2012. International talks began in May 2007 on a future treaty to succeed the current one.[95] UN negotiations are now gathering pace in advance of a meeting in Copenhagen in December 2009.[96]

Many environmental groups encourage individual action against global warming, as well as community and regional actions. Others have suggested a quota on worldwide fossil fuel production, citing a direct link between fossil fuel production and CO2 emissions.[97][98]

There has also been business action on climate change, including efforts to improve energy efficiency and limited moves towards use of alternative fuels. In January 2005 the European Union introduced its European Union Emission Trading Scheme, through which companies in conjunction with government agree to cap their emissions or to purchase credits from those below their allowances. Australia announced its Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme in 2008. United States President Barack Obama has announced plans to introduce an economy-wide cap and trade scheme.[99]

The IPCC's Working Group III is responsible for crafting reports on mitigation of global warming and the costs and benefits of different approaches. The 2007 IPCC Fourth Assessment Report concludes that no one technology or sector can be completely responsible for mitigating future warming. They find there are key practices and technologies in various sectors, such as energy supply, transportation, industry, and agriculture, that should be implemented to reduced global emissions. They estimate that stabilization of carbon dioxide equivalent between 445 and 710 ppm by 2030 will result in between a 0.6 percent increase and three percent decrease in global gross domestic product.[100]

Adaptation
Main article: Adaptation to global warming
A wide variety of measures have been suggested for adaptation to global warming. These measures range from the trivial, such as the installation of air-conditioning equipment, to major infrastructure projects, such as abandoning settlements threatened by sea level rise.

Measures including water conservation,[101] water rationing, adaptive agricultural practices,[102] construction of flood defences,[103] Martian colonization,[104] changes to medical care,[105] and interventions to protect threatened species[106] have all been suggested. A wide-ranging study of the possible opportunities for adaptation of infrastructure has been published by the Institute of Mechanical Engineers.[107]

Geoengineering
Main article: Geoengineering
Geoengineering is the deliberate modification of Earth's natural environment on a large scale to suit human needs.[108] An example is greenhouse gas remediation, which removes greenhouse gases from the atmosphere, usually through carbon sequestration techniques such as carbon dioxide air capture.[109] Solar radiation management reduces absorbed solar radiation, such as by the addition of stratospheric sulfur aerosols [110] or cool roof techniques.[111]. No large-scale geoengineering projects have yet been undertaken.

Debate and skepticism
Main articles: Global warming controversy and Politics of global warming
See also: Scientific opinion on climate change and Climate change denial
Per capita greenhouse gas emissions in 2000, including land-use change.

Per country greenhouse gas emissions in 2000, including land-use change.Increased publicity of the scientific findings surrounding global warming has resulted in political and economic debate.[112] Poor regions, particularly Africa, appear at greatest risk from the projected effects of global warming, while their emissions have been small compared to the developed world.[113] The exemption of developing countries from Kyoto Protocol restrictions has been used to justify non-ratification by the U.S. and a previous Australian Government.[114] (Australia has since ratified the Kyoto protocol.[115]) Another point of contention is the degree to which emerging economies such as India and China should be expected to constrain their emissions.[116] The U.S. contends that if it must bear the cost of reducing emissions, then China should do the same[117][118] since China's gross national CO2 emissions now exceed those of the U.S.[119][120][121] China has contended that it is less obligated to reduce emissions since its per capita responsibility and per capita emissions are less that of the U.S.[122] India, also exempt, has made similar contentions.[123]

In 2007–2008 Gallup Polls surveyed 127 countries. Over a third of the world's population were unaware of global warming, with developing countries less aware than developed, and Africa the least aware. Of those aware, Latin America leads in belief that temperature changes are a result of human activities while Africa, parts of Asia and the Middle East, and a few countries from the Former Soviet Union lead in the opposite belief.[124] In the western world, the concept and the appropriate responses are contested. Nick Pidgeon of Cardiff University finds that "results show the different stages of engagement about global warming on each side of the Atlantic"; where Europe debates the appropriate responses while the United States debates whether climate change is happening.[125]

Debates weigh the benefits of limiting industrial emissions of greenhouse gases against the costs that such changes would entail.[100] Using economic incentives, alternative and renewable energy have been promoted to reduce emissions while building infrastructure.[126][127] Business-centered organizations such as the Competitive Enterprise Institute, conservative commentators, and companies such as ExxonMobil have downplayed IPCC climate change scenarios, funded scientists who disagree with the scientific consensus, and provided their own projections of the economic cost of stricter controls.[128][129][130][131] Environmental organizations and public figures have emphasized changes in the current climate and the risks they entail, while promoting adaptation to changes in infrastructural needs and emissions reductions.[132] Some fossil fuel companies have scaled back their efforts in recent years,[133] or called for policies to reduce global warming.[134]

Some global warming skeptics in the science or political communities dispute all or some of the global warming scientific consensus, questioning whether global warming is actually occurring, whether human activity has contributed significantly to the warming, and the magnitude of the threat posed by global warming. Prominent global warming skeptics include Richard Lindzen, Fred Singer, Patrick Michaels, John Christy, and Robert Balling.[135][136][137]

See also
Global warming portal
Glossary of climate change
Index of climate change articles
Notes
^ Increase is for years 1905 to 2005. Global surface temperature is defined in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report as the average of near-surface air temperature over land and sea surface temperature. These error bounds are constructed with a 90% uncertainty interval.
^ The 2001 joint statement was signed by the national academies of science of Australia, Belgium, Brazil, Canada, the Caribbean, China, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Ireland, Italy, Malaysia, New Zealand, Sweden, and the UK. The 2005 statement added Japan, Russia, and the U.S. The 2007 statement added Mexico and South Africa. The Network of African Science Academies, and the Polish Academy of Sciences have issued separate statements. Professional scientific societies include American Astronomical Society, American Chemical Society, American Geophysical Union, American Institute of Physics, American Meteorological Society, American Physical Society, American Quaternary Association, Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society, Canadian Foundation for Climate and Atmospheric Sciences, Canadian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society, European Academy of Sciences and Arts, European Geosciences Union, European Science Foundation, Geological Society of America, Geological Society of Australia, Geological Society of London-Stratigraphy Commission, InterAcademy Council, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics, International Union for Quaternary Research, National Association of Geoscience Teachers, National Research Council (US), Royal Meteorological Society, and World Meteorological Organization.
^ Note that the greenhouse effect produces an average worldwide temperature increase of about 33 °C (59 °F) compared to black body predictions without the greenhouse effect, not an average surface temperature of 33 °C (91 °F). The average worldwide surface temperature is about 14 °C (57 °F).
References
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^ a b c Hegerl, Gabriele C.; et al. (2007). "Understanding and Attributing Climate Change" (PDF). Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. IPCC. http://ipcc-wg1.ucar.edu/wg1/Report/AR4WG1_Print_Ch09.pdf. "Recent estimates indicate a relatively small combined effect of natural forcings on the global mean temperature evolution of the second half of the 20th century, with a small net cooling from the combined effects of solar and volcanic forcings."
^ Ammann, Caspar; et al. (2007). "Solar influence on climate during the past millennium: Results from transient simulations with the NCAR Climate Simulation Model" (PDF). Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 104 (10): 3713–3718. doi:10.1073/pnas.0605064103. PMID 17360418. http://www.pnas.org/cgi/reprint/104/10/3713.pdf. "Simulations with only natural forcing components included yield an early 20th century peak warming of ≈0.2 °C (≈1950 AD), which is reduced to about half by the end of the century because of increased volcanism.".
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^ William J. Broad (27 June 2006). "How to Cool a Planet (Maybe)". New York Times. http://www.nytimes.com/2006/06/27/science/earth/27cool.html?ex=1151985600&en=ca9e39a26d7e4ece&ei=5065&partner=MYWAY. Retrieved 10 March 2009. "...a controversial field known as geoengineering, which means rearranging the Earth's environment on a large scale to suit human needs and promote habitability"
^ Keith, D.W., M. Ha-Duong and J.K. Stolaroff (2006). "Climate Strategy with CO2 Capture from the Air". Climatic Change 74: 17. doi:10.1007/s10584-005-9026-x.
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^ http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change/obamas-climate-guru-paint-your-roof-white-1691209.html
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^ Brahic, Catherine (2006-04-25). "China's emissions may surpass the US in 2007". New Scientist. http://environment.newscientist.com/article/dn11707-chinas-emissions-to-surpass-the-us-within-months.html. Retrieved 2007-05-02.
^ http://www.smh.com.au/news/environment/rudd-signs-kyoto-deal/2007/12/03/1196530553203.html
^ Max, Arthur. "US envoy says China wants top line US technology in exchange for reining in CO2 emissions". Star Tribune. Associated Press. http://www.startribune.com/world/47783247.html?elr=KArks7PYDiaK7DUjyDD:_HP5P:QUiD3aPc:_Yyc:aUU. Retrieved 2009-06-26.
^ "Chinese object to climate draft". BBC. 2008-05-01. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/6610653.stm. Retrieved 2009-05-21.
^ Mufson, Steven (2007-06-06). "In Battle for U.S. Carbon Caps, Eyes and Efforts Focus on China". The Washington Post. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/06/05/AR2007060502546.html. Retrieved 2009-05-21.
^ "China now top carbon polluter". BBC News. 2008-04-14. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/7347638.stm. Retrieved 2008-04-22.
^ "Group: China tops world in CO2 emissions". USA Today. Associated Press. 2007-06-20. http://www.usatoday.com/tech/science/2007-06-20-124188869_x.htm. Retrieved 2007-10-16.
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^ Casey, Michael (2007-12-07). "China Says West Should Deal With Warming". Newsvine. http://www.newsvine.com/_news/2007/12/07/1147788-china-says-west-should-deal-with-warming. Retrieved 2009-06-06.
^ IANS (2009-02-05). "India can’t be exempt from mandatory greenhouse gas emission cap: John Kerry". Thaindian.com. http://www.thaindian.com/newsportal/uncategorized/india-cant-be-exempt-from-mandatory-greenhouse-gas-emission-cap-john-kerry_100151668.html. Retrieved 2009-06-24.
^ Pelham, Brett (2009-04-22). "Awareness, Opinions About Global Warming Vary Worldwide". Gallup. http://www.gallup.com/poll/117772/Awareness-Opinions-Global-Warming-Vary-Worldwide.aspx. Retrieved 2009-07-14.
^ "Summary of Findings". Little Consensus on Global Warming. Partisanship Drives Opinion. Pew Research Center. 2006-07-12. http://people-press.org/reports/display.php3?ReportID=280. Retrieved 2007-04-14.
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^ Begley, Sharon (2007-08-13). "The Truth About Denial". Newsweek. http://www.newsweek.com/id/32482. Retrieved 2007-08-13.
^ Adams, David (2006-09-20). "Royal Society tells Exxon: stop funding climate change denial". The Guardian. http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2006/sep/20/oilandpetrol.business. Retrieved 2007-08-09.
^ "Exxon cuts ties to global warming skeptics". MSNBC. 2007-01-12. http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/16593606. Retrieved 2007-05-02.
^ Sandell, Clayton (2007-01-03). "Report: Big Money Confusing Public on Global Warming". ABC. http://abcnews.go.com/Technology/Business/story?id=2767979&page=1. Retrieved 2007-04-27.
^ U.S. Global Change Research Program (2009-06-06). "New Report Provides Authoritative Assessment of National, Regional Impacts of Global Climate Change" (PDF). Press release. http://www.globalchange.gov/images/cir/pdf/Climate-Impacts-PR_june-6-2009.pdf. Retrieved 2009-06-27.
^ "Greenpeace: Exxon still funding climate skeptics". USA Today. 2007-05-18. http://www.usatoday.com/weather/climate/globalwarming/2007-05-18-greenpeace-exxon_N.htm. Retrieved 2007-07-09.
^ Ceres (2004-04-28). "Global Warming Resolutions at U.S. Oil Companies Bring Policy Commitments from Leaders, and Record High Votes at Laggards". Press release. http://www.ceres.org/news/news_item.php?nid=56. Retrieved 2007-07-27.
^ de Granados, Oriana Zill (2007-04-24). "The Doubters of Global Warming". Frontline. http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/hotpolitics/reports/skeptics.html. Retrieved 2009-07-31.
^ Revkin, Andrew C. (2009-03-08). "Skeptics Dispute Climate Worries and Each Other". New York Times. http://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/09/science/earth/09climate.html?pagewanted=1&_r=1&sq=global%20warming%20skeptic&st=cse&scp=1. Retrieved 2009-07-31.
^ Dyson, Freeman; Brockman, John (Editor) (2007-08-08). "Heretical thoughts about science and society". Edge – the third culture. http://www.edge.org/3rd_culture/dysonf07/dysonf07_index.html. Retrieved 2009-07-31.
Further reading
Association of British Insurers (2005–06) (PDF). Financial Risks of Climate Change. http://www.climatewise.org.uk/storage/610/financial_risks_of_climate_change.pdf.
Barnett, TP; Adam, JC; Lettenmaier, DP (2005-11-17). "Potential impacts of a warming climate on water availability in snow-dominated regions" (abstract). Nature 438 (7066): 303–309. doi:10.1038/nature04141. PMID 16292301. http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v438/n7066/abs/nature04141.html.
Behrenfeld, MJ; O'malley, RT; Siegel, DA; Mcclain, CR; Sarmiento, JL; Feldman, GC; Milligan, AJ; Falkowski, PG et al. (2006-12-07). "Climate-driven trends in contemporary ocean productivity" (PDF). Nature 444 (7120): 752–755. doi:10.1038/nature05317. PMID 17151666. http://www.icess.ucsb.edu/~davey/MyPapers/Behrenfeld_etal_2006_Nature.pdf.
Choi, Onelack; Fisher, Ann (May 2005). "The Impacts of Socioeconomic Development and Climate Change on Severe Weather Catastrophe Losses: Mid-Atlantic Region (MAR) and the U.S.". Climate Change 58 (1–2): 149–170. doi:10.1023/A:1023459216609. http://www.springerlink.com/content/m6308777613702q0/.
Dyurgerov, Mark B.; Meier, Mark F. (2005) (PDF). Glaciers and the Changing Earth System: a 2004 Snapshot. Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research Occasional Paper #58. ISSN 0069-6145. http://instaar.colorado.edu/other/download/OP58_dyurgerov_meier.pdf.
Emanuel, K (2005-08-04). "Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years." (PDF). Nature 436 (7051): 686–688. doi:10.1038/nature03906. PMID 16056221. ftp://texmex.mit.edu/pub/emanuel/PAPERS/NATURE03906.pdf.
Hansen, James; et al. (2005-06-03). "Earth's Energy Imbalance: Confirmation and Implications" (PDF). Science 308 (5727): 1431–1435. doi:10.1126/science.1110252. PMID 15860591. http://pangea.stanford.edu/research/Oceans/GES205/Hansen_Science_Earth's%20Energy%20Balance.pdf.
Hinrichs, Kai-Uwe; Hmelo, Laura R.; Sylva, Sean P. (2003-02-21). "Molecular Fossil Record of Elevated Methane Levels in Late Pleistocene Coastal Waters". Science 299 (5610): 1214–1217. doi:10.1126/science.1079601. PMID 12595688.
Hirsch, Tim (2006-01-11). "Plants revealed as methane source". BBC. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/4604332.stm.
Hoyt, Douglas V.; Schatten, Kenneth H. (1993–11). "A discussion of plausible solar irradiance variations, 1700–1992". Journal of Geophysical Research 98 (A11): 18,895–18,906. doi:10.1029/93JA01944. http://adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-bib_query?bibcode=1993JGR....9818895H&db_key=AST&data_type=HTML&format=&high=448f267ff303582.
Karnaukhov, A. V. (2001). "Role of the Biosphere in the Formation of the Earth’s Climate: The Greenhouse Catastrophe" (PDF). Biophysics 46 (6). http://avturchin.narod.ru/Green.pdf.
Kenneth, James P.; et al. (2003-02-14). Methane Hydrates in Quaternary Climate Change: The Clathrate Gun Hypothesis. American Geophysical Union. https://www.agu.org/cgi-bin/agubooks?book=ASSP0542960.
Keppler, Frank; et al. (2006-01-18). "Global Warming – The Blame Is not with the Plants". Max Planck Society. http://www.mpg.de/english/illustrationsDocumentation/documentation/pressReleases/2006/pressRelease200601131/index.html.
Lean, Judith L.; Wang, Y.M.; Sheeley, N.R. (2002–12). "The effect of increasing solar activity on the Sun's total and open magnetic flux during multiple cycles: Implications for solar forcing of climate" (abstract). Geophysical Research Letters 29 (24): 2224. doi:10.1029/2002GL015880. http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2002GeoRL..29x..77L.
Lerner, K. Lee; Lerner, K. Lee; Wilmoth, Brenda (2006-07-26). Environmental issues: essential primary sources. Thomson Gale. ISBN 1414406258.
Muscheler, Raimund, R; Joos, F; Müller, SA; Snowball, I (2005-07-28). "Climate: How unusual is today's solar activity?" (PDF). Nature 436 (7012): 1084–1087. doi:10.1038/nature04045. PMID 16049429. http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/ccr/raimund/publications/Muscheler_et_al_Nature2005.pdf.
Oerlemans, J. (2005-04-29). "Extracting a Climate Signal from 169 Glacier Records" (PDF). Science 308 (5722): 675–677. doi:10.1126/science.1107046. PMID 15746388. http://www.cosis.net/abstracts/EGU05/04572/EGU05-J-04572.pdf.
Oreskes, N (2004-12-03). "Beyond the Ivory Tower: The Scientific Consensus on Climate Change" (PDF). Science 306 (5702): 1686. doi:10.1126/science.1103618. PMID 15576594. http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/reprint/306/5702/1686.pdf.
Purse, BV; Mellor, PS; Rogers, DJ; Samuel, AR; Mertens, PP; Baylis, M (February 2005). "Climate change and the recent emergence of bluetongue in Europe" (abstract). Nature Reviews Microbiology 3 (2): 171–181. doi:10.1038/nrmicro1090. PMID 15685226. http://www.nature.com/nrmicro/journal/v3/n2/abs/nrmicro1090_fs.html.
Revkin, Andrew C (2005-11-05). "Rise in Gases Unmatched by a History in Ancient Ice". The New York Times. http://www.nytimes.com/2005/11/25/science/earth/25core.html?ei=5090&en=d5078e33050b2b0c&ex=1290574800&adxnnl=1&partner=rssuserland&emc=rss.
Ruddiman, William F. (2005-12-15). Earth's Climate Past and Future. New York: Princeton University Press. ISBN 0-7167-3741-8. http://www.whfreeman.com/ruddiman/.
Ruddiman, William F. (2005-08-01). Plows, Plagues, and Petroleum: How Humans Took Control of Climate. New Jersey: Princeton University Press. ISBN 0-691-12164-8.
Solanki, SK; Usoskin, IG; Kromer, B; Schüssler, M; Beer, J (2004-10-23). "Unusual activity of the Sun during recent decades compared to the previous 11,000 years." (PDF). Nature 431 (7012): 1084–1087. doi:10.1038/nature02995 (inactive 2009-09-18). PMID 15510145. http://cc.oulu.fi/%7Eusoskin/personal/nature02995.pdf.
Solanki, Sami K.; et al. (2005-07-28). "Climate: How unusual is today's solar activity? (Reply)" (PDF). Nature 436: E4–E5. doi:10.1038/nature04046. http://cc.oulu.fi/%7Eusoskin/personal/sola_nature05.pdf.
Sowers, Todd (2006-02-10). "Late Quaternary Atmospheric CH4 Isotope Record Suggests Marine Clathrates Are Stable". Science 311 (5762): 838–840. doi:10.1126/science.1121235. PMID 16469923.
Svensmark, Henrik; et al. (2007-02-08). "Experimental evidence for the role of ions in particle nucleation under atmospheric conditions". Proceedings of the Royal Society A (FirstCite Early Online Publishing) 463 (2078): 385–396. doi:10.1098/rspa.2006.1773. (online version requires registration)
Walter, KM; Zimov, SA; Chanton, JP; Verbyla, D; Chapin Fs, 3rd (2006-09-07). "Methane bubbling from Siberian thaw lakes as a positive feedback to climate warming". Nature 443 (7107): 71–75. doi:10.1038/nature05040. PMID 16957728.
Wang, Y.-M.; Lean, J.L.; Sheeley, N.R. (2005-05-20). "Modeling the sun's magnetic field and irradiance since 1713" (PDF). Astrophysical Journal 625: 522–538. doi:10.1086/429689. http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/Wang_2005.pdf.
External links
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Research

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change — collection of IPCC reports
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What Is Global Warming? — by National Geographic
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Climate change - Wikipedia

Climate change
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Portal Atmospheric Sciences
Portal Weather
Climate change is a change in the statistical distribution of weather over periods of time that range from decades to millions of years. It can be a change in the average weather or a change in the distribution of weather events around an average (for example, greater or fewer extreme weather events). Climate change may be limited to a specific region, or may occur across the whole Earth.

In recent usage, especially in the context of environmental policy, climate change usually refers to changes in modern climate (see global warming). For information on temperature measurements over various periods, and the data sources available, see temperature record. For attribution of climate change over the past century, see attribution of recent climate change.

Contents [hide]
1 Causes
1.1 Plate tectonics
1.2 Solar output
1.3 Orbital variations
1.4 Volcanism
1.5 Ocean variability
1.6 Human influences
2 Physical evidence for climatic change
2.1 Historical & Archaeological evidence
2.2 Glaciers
2.3 Vegetation
2.4 Ice cores
2.5 Dendrochronology
2.6 Pollen analysis
2.7 Insects
2.8 Sea level change
3 See also
4 References
5 Further reading
6 External links


Causes
Factors that can shape climate are often called climate forcings. These include such processes as variations in solar radiation, deviations in the Earth's orbit, mountain-building and continental drift, and changes in greenhouse gas concentrations. There are a variety of climate change feedbacks that can either amplify or diminish the initial forcing. Some parts of the climate system, such as the oceans and ice caps, respond slowly in reaction to climate forcing because of their large mass. Therefore, the climate system can take centuries or longer to fully respond to new external forcings.

Plate tectonics
Over the course of millions of years, the motion of tectonic plates reconfigures global land and ocean areas and generates topography. This can affect both global and local patterns of climate and atmosphere-ocean circulation.[1]

The position of the continents determines the geometry of the oceans and therefore influences patterns of ocean circulation. The locations of the seas are important in controlling the transfer of heat and moisture across the globe, and therefore, in determining global climate. A recent example of tectonic control on ocean circulation is the formation of the Isthmus of Panama about 5 million years ago, which shut off direct mixing between the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. This strongly affected the ocean dynamics of what is now the Gulf Stream and may have led to Northern Hemisphere ice cover.[2][3] Earlier, during the Carboniferous period, plate tectonics may have triggered the large-scale storage of carbon and increased glaciation.[4] Geologic evidence points to a "megamonsoonal" circulation pattern during the time of the supercontinent Pangaea, and climate modeling suggests that the existence of the supercontinent was conductive to the establishment of monsoons.[5]

More locally, topography can influence climate. The existence of mountains (as a product of plate tectonics through mountain-building) can cause orographic precipitation. Humidity generally decreases and diurnal temperature swings generally increase with increasing elevation. Mean temperature and the length of the growing season also decrease with increasing elevation. This, along with orographic precipitation, is important for the existence of low-latitude alpine glaciers and the varied flora and fauna along at different elevations in montane ecosystems.

The size of continents is also important. Because of the stabilizing effect of the oceans on temperature, yearly temperature variations are generally lower in coastal areas than they are inland. A larger supercontinent will therefore have more area in which climate is strongly seasonal than will several smaller continents and/or island arcs.

Solar output
Main article: Solar variation

Variations in solar activity during the last several centuries based on observations of sunspots and beryllium isotopes.The sun is the predominant source for energy input to the Earth. Both long- and short-term variations in solar intensity are known to affect global climate.

Early in Earth's history the sun emitted only 70% as much power as it does today. With the same atmospheric composition as exists today, liquid water should not have existed on Earth. However, there is evidence for the presence of water on the early Earth, in the Hadean[6][7] and Archean[8][6] eons, leading to what is known as the faint young sun paradox.[9] Hypothesized solutions to this paradox include a vastly different atmosphere, with much higher concentrations of greenhouse gases than currently exist[10] Over the following approximately 4 billion years, the energy output of the sun increased and atmospheric composition changed, with the oxygenation of the atmosphere being the most notable alteration. The luminosity of the sun will continue to increase as it follows the main sequence. These changes in luminosity, and the sun's ultimate death as it becomes a red giant and then a white dwarf, will have large effects on climate, with the red giant phase possibly ending life on Earth.

Solar output also varies on shorter time scales, including the 11-year solar cycle[11] and longer-term modulations.[12] The 11-year sunspot cycle produces low-latitude warming and high-latitude cooling over limited areas of statistical significance in the stratosphere with an amplitude of approximately 1.5°C. But although "variability associated with the 11-yr solar cycle has a significant influence on stratospheric temperatures. ...there is still no consensus on the exact magnitude and spatial structure".[13] These stratospheric variations are consistent with the idea that excess equatorial heating can drive thermal winds. In the near-surface troposphere, there is only a small change in temperature (on the order of a tenth of a degree, and only statistically significant in limited areas underneath the peaks in stratospheric zonal wind speed) due to the 11-year solar cycle. Solar intensity variations are considered to have been influential in triggering the Little Ice Age,[14] and for some of the warming observed from 1900 to 1950. The cyclical nature of the sun's energy output is not yet fully understood; it differs from the very slow change that is happening within the sun as it ages and evolves, with some studies pointing toward solar radiation increases from cyclical sunspot activity affecting global warming.[15] [16]

Orbital variations
Slight variations in Earth's orbit lead to changes in the amount of sunlight reaching the Earth's surface and how it is distributed across the globe. The former is similar to solar variations in that there is a change to the power input from the sun to the Earth system. The latter is due to how the orbital variations affect when and where sunlight is received by the Earth. The three types of orbital variations are variations in Earth's eccentricity, changes in the tilt angle of Earth's axis of rotation, and precession of Earth's axis. Combined together, these produce Milankovitch cycles which have a large impact on climate and are notable for their correlation to glacial and interglacial periods,[17] their correlation with the advance and retreat of the Sahara,[17] and for their appearance in the stratigraphic record.[18]

Volcanism
Volcanism is a process of conveying material from the crust and mantle of the Earth to its surface. Volcanic eruptions, geysers, and hot springs, are examples of volcanic processes which release gases and/or particulates into the atmosphere.

Eruptions large enough to affect climate occur on average several times per century, and cause cooling (by partially blocking the transmission of solar radiation to the Earth's surface) for a period of a few years. The eruption of Mount Pinatubo in 1991, the second largest terrestrial eruption of the 20th century[19] (after the 1912 eruption of Novarupta[20]) affected the climate substantially. Global temperatures decreased by about 0.5 °C (0.9 °F). The eruption of Mount Tambora in 1815 caused the Year Without a Summer.[21] Much larger eruptions, known as large igneous provinces, occur only a few times every hundred million years, but may cause global warming and mass extinctions.[22]

Volcanoes are also part of the extended carbon cycle. Over very long (geological) time periods, they release carbon dioxide from the Earth's crust and mantle, counteracting the uptake by sedimentary rocks and other geological carbon dioxide sinks. According to the US Geological Survey, however, estimates are that human activities generate more than 130 times the amount of carbon dioxide emitted by volcanoes.[23]

Ocean variability
Main article: Thermohaline circulation

A schematic of modern thermohaline circulationThe ocean is a fundamental part of the climate system. Short-term fluctuations (years to a few decades) such as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, the Pacific decadal oscillation, the North Atlantic oscillation, and the Arctic oscillation, represent climate variability rather than climate change. On longer time scales, alterations to ocean processes such as thermohaline circulation play a key role in redistributing heat by carrying out a very slow and extremely deep movement of water, and the long-term redistribution of heat in the world's oceans.

Human influences
Main article: Global warming
Anthropogenic factors are human activities that change the environment. In some cases the chain of causality of human influence on the climate is direct and unambiguous (for example, the effects of irrigation on local humidity), whilst in other instances it is less clear. Various hypotheses for human-induced climate change have been argued for many years. Presently the scientific consensus on climate change is that human activity is very likely the cause for the rapid increase in global average temperatures over the past several decades.[24] Consequently, the debate has largely shifted onto ways to reduce further human impact and to find ways to adapt to change that has already occurred.[25]

Of most concern in these anthropogenic factors is the increase in CO2 levels due to emissions from fossil fuel combustion, followed by aerosols (particulate matter in the atmosphere) and cement manufacture. Other factors, including land use, ozone depletion, animal agriculture[26] and deforestation, are also of concern in the roles they play - both separately and in conjunction with other factors - in affecting climate.

Physical evidence for climatic change
Evidence for climatic change is taken from a variety of sources that can be used to reconstruct past climates. Reasonably complete global records of surface temperature are available beginning from the mid-late 1800s. For earlier periods, most of the evidence is indirect—climatic changes are inferred from changes in indicators that reflect climate, such as vegetation, ice cores,[27] dendrochronology, sea level change, and glacial geology.

Historical & Archaeological evidence
Main article: Historical impacts of climate change
Climate change in the recent past may be detected by corresponding changes in settlement and agricultural patterns.[28] Archaeological evidence, oral history and historical documents can offer insights into past changes in the climate. Climate change effects have been linked to the collapse of various civilisations.[29]

Glaciers

Variations in CO2, temperature and dust from the Vostok ice core over the last 450,000 yearsGlaciers are among the most sensitive indicators of climate change,[30] advancing when climate cools (for example, during the period known as the Little Ice Age) and retreating when climate warms. Glaciers grow and shrink, both contributing to natural variability and amplifying externally forced changes. A world glacier inventory has been compiled since the 1970s. Initially based mainly on aerial photographs and maps, this compilation has resulted in a detailed inventory of more than 100,000 glaciers covering a total area of approximately 240,000 km2 and, in preliminary estimates, for the recording of the remaining ice cover estimated to be around 445,000 km2. The World Glacier Monitoring Service collects data annually on glacier retreat and glacier mass balance From this data, glaciers worldwide have been found to be shrinking significantly, with strong glacier retreats in the 1940s, stable or growing conditions during the 1920s and 1970s, and again retreating from the mid 1980s to present.[31] Mass balance data indicate 17 consecutive years of negative glacier mass balance.


Percentage of advancing glaciers in the Alps in the last 80 yearsThe most significant climate processes since the middle to late Pliocene (approximately 3 million years ago) are the glacial and interglacial cycles. The present interglacial period (the Holocene) has lasted about 11,700 years.[32] Shaped by orbital variations, responses such as the rise and fall of continental ice sheets and significant sea-level changes helped create the climate. Other changes, including Heinrich events, Dansgaard–Oeschger events and the Younger Dryas, however, illustrate how glacial variations may also influence climate without the forcing effect of orbital changes.

Glaciers leave behind moraines that contain a wealth of material - including organic matter that may be accurately dated - recording the periods in which a glacier advanced and retreated. Similarly, by tephrochronological techniques, the lack of glacier cover can be identified by the presence of soil or volcanic tephra horizons whose date of deposit may also be precisely ascertained.

Vegetation
A change in the type, distribution and coverage of vegetation may occur given a change in the climate; this much is obvious. In any given scenario, a mild change in climate may result in increased precipitation and warmth, resulting in improved plant growth and the subsequent sequestration of airborne CO2. Larger, faster or more radical changes, however, may well[weasel words] result in vegetation stress, rapid plant loss and desertification in certain circumstances.[33]

Ice cores
Analysis of ice in a core drilled from a ice sheet such as the Antarctic ice sheet, can be used to show a link between temperature and global sea level variations. The air trapped in bubbles in the ice can also reveal the CO2 variations of the atmosphere from the distant past, well before modern environmental influences. The study of these ice cores has been a significant indicator of the changes in CO2 over many millennia, and continue to provide valuable information about the differences between ancient and modern atmospheric conditions.

Dendrochronology
Dendochronology is the analysis of tree ring growth patterns to determine the age of a tree. From a climate change viewpoint, however, Dendochronology can also indicate the climatic conditions for a given number of years. Wide and thick rings indicate a fertile, well-watered growing period, whilst thin, narrow rings indicate a time of lower rainfall and less-than-ideal growing conditions.

Pollen analysis
Palynology is the study of contemporary and fossil palynomorphs, including pollen. Palynology is used to infer the geographical distribution of plant species, which vary under different climate conditions. Different groups of plants have pollen with distinctive shapes and surface textures, and since the outer surface of pollen is composed of a very resilient material, they resist decay. Changes in the type of pollen found in different sedimentation levels in lakes, bogs or river deltas indicate changes in plant communities; which are dependent on climate conditions.[34][35]

Insects
Remains of beetles are common in freshwater and land sediments. Different species of beetles tend to be found under different climatic conditions. Given the extensive lineage of beetles whose genetic makeup has not altered significantly over the millennia, knowledge of the present climatic range of the different species, and the age of the sediments in which remains are found, past climatic conditions may be inferred.[36]

Sea level change
Main article: Current sea level rise
Global sea level change for much of the last century has generally been estimated using tide gauge measurements collated over long periods of time to give a long-term average. More recently, altimeter measurements — in combination with accurately determined satellite orbits — have provided an improved measurement of global sea level change.[37]

See also
General

Paleoclimatology and links therein
Atmospheric physics
Glossary of climate change
List of climate change topics
Climate of the deep past

Faint young sun paradox
Oxygen catastrophe
Snowball earth
Climate of the last 500 million years

Ice ages
Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum
Permo–Carboniferous Glaciation
Wikinews has related news:
Climate change
Environment portal
Energy portal
Climate of recent glaciations

Bond event
Dansgaard-Oeschger event
Younger Dryas
Recent climate

Anthropocene
Global warming
Hardiness Zone Migration
Holocene Climatic Optimum
Little Ice Age
Medieval Warm Period
Temperature record of the past 1000 years
Year Without a Summer


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Further reading
Emanuel K (August 2005). "Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years". Nature 436 (7051): 686–8. doi:10.1038/nature03906. PMID 16056221. ftp://texmex.mit.edu/pub/emanuel/PAPERS/NATURE03906.pdf.
IPCC. (2007) Climate change 2007: the physical science basis (summary for policy makers), IPCC.
Edwards, Paul Geoffrey; Miller, Clark A. (2001). Changing the atmosphere: expert knowledge and environmental governance. Cambridge, Mass: MIT Press. ISBN 0-262-63219-5.
Ruddiman, W. F. (2003). "The anthropogenic greenhouse era began thousands of years ago". Climate Change 61 (3): 261–293. doi:10.1023/B:CLIM.0000004577.17928.fa.
William F. Ruddiman (2005). Plows, plagues, and petroleum: how humans took control of climate. Princeton, N.J: Princeton University Press. ISBN 0-691-13398-0.
Ruddiman, W. F., Vavrus, S. J. and Kutzbach, J. E. (2005). "A test of the overdue-glaciation hypothesis". Quaternary Science Review 24 (11).
Schmidt, G. A., Shindel, D. T. and Harder, S. (2004). "A note of the relationship between ice core methane concentrations and insolation". Geophys. Res. Lett. 31: L23206. doi:10.1029/2004GL021083. http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2004/2004GL021083.shtml.
External links
NASA's Global Climate Change website
Climate Change from the UCB Libraries GovPubs
Climate change at the Open Directory Project
Ocean Motion: Satellites Record Weakening North Atlantic Current
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
United Nations University's 'Our World 2' Climate Change Video Briefs
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